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Nonprofit Impact Evaluation Guide – Interactive Learning Tool
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Nonprofit Impact Evaluation Guide

Learn rigorous methods to prove your program actually works

Outcome Measurement and Impact Evaluation

Master impact evaluation methods including RCTs, quasi-experimental designs, and feasibility assessment

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When & Why
RCTs Explained
Quasi-Experimental
Feasibility Calculator
Nonprofit Resources

When & Why Impact Evaluation Matters

Why isn’t basic outcome measurement enough to prove your program works?

While basic outcome measurement shows changes in participants, it can’t definitively prove your program caused those changes. Impact evaluation provides stronger evidence by controlling for other factors that might explain the outcomes you observe.

Key Scenarios for Impact Evaluation

Stakeholder Scrutiny

  • Funders question whether your program really works
  • Board members want stronger evidence of effectiveness
  • Government agencies require rigorous evaluation
  • Media or critics challenge your impact claims

Major Funding & Expansion

  • Seeking significant grants or investments
  • Planning to scale your program to new locations
  • Competing for limited foundation funding
  • Building case for policy change or adoption

External Factors at Play

  • Economic conditions might explain job training success
  • Natural maturation might explain youth improvements
  • Seasonal factors might affect program outcomes
  • Other services participants receive simultaneously

High Stakes Programs

  • Expensive programs needing cost justification
  • Controversial approaches differing from standard practice
  • Programs affecting vulnerable populations
  • Interventions with potential negative consequences

Is Your Program Ready for Impact Evaluation?

Program Maturity

Stable implementation with consistent program components – not still changing major elements

Resource Capacity

Sufficient time, money, and staff for 2+ year evaluation studies costing $50K+

Ethical Feasibility

Ability to create fair comparison groups without causing harm or denying necessary services

Clear Purpose

Specific plans for using results – scaling, policy change, or major funding decisions

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs)

RCTs are the gold standard for impact evaluation. They randomly assign people to receive your program or be in a control group, then compare outcomes between groups.

How RCTs Work

  • Random Assignment: People are randomly selected to receive your program or not
  • Control Group: Similar people who don’t receive the program serve as comparison
  • Fair Comparison: Random assignment ensures groups start out similar
  • Causal Evidence: Differences in outcomes can be attributed to your program

When RCTs Work Best

  • Excess Demand: More people want your program than you can serve
  • Clear Eligibility: Specific criteria for who can participate
  • Standardized Program: Consistent intervention across participants
  • Measurable Outcomes: Clear indicators you can track over time

Addressing Ethical Concerns

  • Waitlist Design: Control group receives program after evaluation period
  • Fairness Argument: Random selection may be fairer than other methods
  • Alternative Services: Ensure control group has access to other support
  • Informed Consent: Participants understand and agree to random assignment

Common RCT Challenges

  • Ethical Objections: Staff discomfort with denying services
  • Attrition: People dropping out of study over time
  • Contamination: Control group receiving similar services elsewhere
  • Implementation Issues: Program changes during evaluation period

Quasi-Experimental Design Alternatives

Comparison Group Design

Find similar people who didn’t receive your program

  • Compare job training participants to unemployed people in nearby city
  • Match on demographics, education, employment history
  • Key challenge: ensuring groups are truly similar
  • Use multiple comparison sites to strengthen design

Regression Discontinuity

Use program eligibility cutoffs to create comparison

  • Serve people with incomes below $25,000
  • Compare those just below threshold to those just above
  • Groups should be very similar except for program eligibility
  • Requires clear, consistently applied cutoff criteria

Difference-in-Differences

Compare changes over time between groups

  • Measure both groups before and after program
  • Controls for stable differences between groups
  • Focus on whether program group improves more
  • Requires pre-program baseline data for both groups

Matching Techniques

Find comparison participants similar to each program participant

  • Match on age, education, income, employment status
  • Use statistical techniques to identify best matches
  • Can match one-to-one or one-to-many
  • Quality depends on having good matching variables

Impact Evaluation Feasibility Calculator

Assess whether impact evaluation makes sense for your program by evaluating costs, benefits, and readiness factors.

Impact Evaluation Success Factors

Start with Strong Program Theory

  • Clear logic model showing how activities lead to outcomes
  • Specific, measurable outcomes you expect to achieve
  • Realistic timeline for when changes should occur

Plan for Data Collection

  • Identify reliable data sources for all key outcomes
  • Plan baseline data collection before program starts
  • Consider participant burden and retention strategies

Build Evaluation Capacity

  • Partner with universities or evaluation consultants
  • Ensure staff buy-in and understanding of evaluation goals
  • Plan for dedicated evaluation coordination and management

Impact Evaluation Resources

Explore these expert resources to deepen your understanding of rigorous impact evaluation methods and implementation.

Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL)

Leading research center providing extensive training materials, case studies, and resources on randomized evaluations in development and social programs.

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What Works Clearinghouse

U.S. Department of Education resource providing evidence standards, study reviews, and guidance on conducting rigorous evaluations in education and social services.

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Coalition for Evidence-Based Policy

Organization promoting the use of rigorous evaluation methods with practical guides on randomized trials, quasi-experimental designs, and evidence standards.

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USAID Development Impact Evaluation Initiative

Comprehensive resources on impact evaluation design, implementation, and use including practical guides, case studies, and training materials for nonprofits.

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Campbell Collaboration

International research network producing systematic reviews and guidance on social intervention effectiveness, including methods for rigorous evaluation design.

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